The Calm Before the Storm(s)

Day 24 : Ascension to Azores

Sunday, April 10th 2022

Way back on Day 1, we described this passage as consisting of 5 phases, namely:

• Phase 1 – Ascension to the ITCZ (Approximately 7 days): Easy downwind sailing

• Phase 2 – The ITCZ (approximately 5 days): No wind, with occasional violent squalls

• Phase 3 – The Uphill Battle (approx. 15-20 days): Uncomfortable, upwind sailing

• Phase 4 – The Azores High (approx. 2-3 days): No wind

• Phase 5 – The Final Approach (3-5 days): Maybe big storms, maybe easy – impossible to know in advance

Phase 3 was what we feared the most – two to three weeks of sailing hard on the wind. In the end, it wasn’t too bad at all really, for two key reasons.

Firstly we managed the boat, and our comfort levels, very proactively. For the first time I can remember, we set the boat up not for optimum speed, or optimum sailing angle to the wind, but optimum comfort. We configured our chart plotter to permanently display our heel angle, and then adjusted the sails to be bigger and smaller, tighter or looser, to maintain a heel angle of around 15 degrees. This was the sweet spot we’d chosen where we weren’t too uncomfortable, and not too slow. It was much slower than our usual standards, but it made the entire phase much more manageable.

And secondly, we got lucky with the wind direction. We took a gamble with the ITCZ to stay much further east than recommended, and were rewarded with a more favourable wind angle, which only got more and more favourable as Phase 3 progressed. This meant absolutely no tacking, and for the last week or so, sailing on more of a beam reach than close hauled.

It was during this phase though, while falling off the hundred thousandth wave, when I was trying to gee up Jen after a particularly crappy off watch with not much sleep, and I said “Not long now before we’re out of the uphill battle”, and Jen said “yeah, but that’s not what I’ve been worried about - it’s the run into Azores that has been concerning me more.”

It’s not hard to understand why.

We’re currently in 20 knots of wind from the NE, right on the very SW edge of a massive storm system that is engulfing the Azores, and deliberately sailing out the side of it. We should be motoring by lunch time, by which point we’ll officially be in phase 4 –the Azores High.

But it seems to be much smaller than usual right now, as it’s being compressed not just by the storm system we’re skirting, but also the next one coming right after it in just 24-48 hours.

24 hours of motoring through the high should enable us to position ourselves along the leading edge of the next system, and the goal is to try and hang on to and ride it all the way in to the Azores.

If you have the time, it’s worth stopping reading for a moment, going to www.windy.com, and focusing on the area from where we are to the Azores. And then play the next 10 days forward.

It’s actually not just the one system we’re dodging, and the one coming that we’ll try and sail along the edge of. There’s actually a chain of about 5 systems, all in a row, and they’re going to pass through us really quickly. Thankfully, the one going through now is the biggest of them - each of the 4 that we can see coming after are smaller and less intense (although we have got our eye on one little sucker who looks like he might be a bit meaner than the rest)

Our plan is to control the intensity of the wind we’re experiencing by adjusting our position in respect to the edge of each system, essentially treating them like waves that we’ll surf up and down. Turning to port 15 degrees for a day or so to speed up, then if it gets too intense, turn to starboard 15 degrees to slow down. Then the system will pass through us and we’ll end up running out of wind. So we turn to port 15 degrees to pick up the edge of the next one, and so on and so forth.

Part of our overall strategy for the passage has been to position ourselves well to the west of the Azores to benefit from the south west winds that these systems will bring – no matter how intense the wind strength, it should always be from behind us, and as I say, we can relatively easily “dial down” the conditions a little by simply sailing out the edge of it.

It seems crazy to me that I could describe, far less attempt, to sail between multiple storm systems like this. But PredictWind (and the ECMWF forecast within it) have been absolutely magnificent on this entire passage at nailing the conditions we should expect to face, and helping us to choose which path to take.

It’s a real testament to the amazingly accuracy of the ECMWF forecast in this area, and PredictWind’s fantastic interface which allows us to project forward hour by hour Steely’s position within the conditions predicted by the forecast, that we are able to even contemplate sailing in this way.

We’ll spend the next 24 hours of motoring catching our breath, topping up the water tanks, and setting the boat up for downwind sailing, after so long being hard on the wind. Essentially, enjoying the calm before the storms.

By Tuesday, we’ll be into Phase 5, and we’ll see if the 5 or 6 day run through storm alley to the Azores is as straightforward as I’m making it sound.

Watch this space.

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Day 24 Statistics:

Time on passage so far: 23 days, 21 hours
Distance covered in last 24 hours: 125 nm
Average Speed in last 24 hours: 5.2 knots

Official Length of intended Route when we set out: 3,480 nm
Current Projected Distance to Go according to chart plotter: 844 nm
Distance Sailed so Far: 2,809 nm
Total Projected Distance of Route: (2,809 + 844): 3,653 nm
Change in total projected distance in last 24 hours: +1 miles

Estimated Day of Arrival: Predict Wind is saying 11am on Monday 18th April – let’s see how accurate this software really is!